U.S. consumer confidence rose to 91.7 in October 2026 from 84.2 in September, The Conference Board reported October 27, the first increase in four months. Easing gas prices lifted the mood, but households still expect high inflation and plan to cut back on services and big-ticket purchases heading into the holidays.
Key Takeaways
- The Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7, beating economists’ forecasts of about 80 to 81.
- September’s revised reading of 84.2 had been the weakest since April 2014.
- The Expectations Index rose to 72.6 but stayed below 80, the level The Conference Board associates with a recession within the next year.
- Average 12-month inflation expectations eased but remained at 5.8%.
- AAA’s national average for regular gas fell to $4.27 a gallon on October 27, from $4.48 a month earlier, though it remains well above the $3.05 of a year ago.
Confidence Bounces Back From A Twelve-Year Low
The Conference Board’s October Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 91.7, up from a revised 84.2 in September. The September figure had initially been reported at 81.9 and marked the weakest reading since April 2014. The October rebound came in well above forecasts, which had called for only a modest change.
The survey was conducted online from October 1 to 21 and measures how Americans feel about current business and job conditions, along with their outlook for the next six months. The result does not mean households feel good about the economy. It means they feel less bad than they did a month ago.
Gas Prices Drove Much Of The October Improvement
The Conference Board tied the rebound largely to falling prices at the pump. AAA’s national average for a gallon of regular gas stood at $4.27 on October 27, down 21 cents from a month earlier.
For a household that fills a 15-gallon tank once a week, that drop saves about $3 per fill-up, or roughly $13 a month. That is a small but noticeable difference, and fuel prices tend to shape how people feel about the economy more than almost any other expense because they are posted on every street corner.
Context still matters. Gas remains about $1.22 a gallon higher than it was a year ago, when the national average was $3.05. The same household is spending around $70 more per month on gasoline than in October 2025.
Today Looks Better, The Future Still Looks Shaky
The two parts of the index tell different stories. The Present Situation Index, which measures how consumers view business and job conditions right now, rose 8.6 points to 120.4.
The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ six-month outlook for income, business and employment, rose 6.9 points to 72.6. That is an improvement, but the reading remains below 80, the threshold The Conference Board has long associated with an elevated risk of recession within a year.
The gap suggests many Americans see current conditions as manageable while doubting they will improve soon. The job market helps explain part of that tension. Layoffs remain low, with initial jobless claims falling to 194,000 for the week ending October 17, but people who lose work are taking longer to find a new job.
Households Plan To Spend Less On Services And Big Purchases
The more practical signal for families is in spending plans. Consumers reported plans to spend less on services and durable goods, such as appliances, furniture and electronics, over the next six months.
Inflation expectations help explain the caution. Average 12-month inflation expectations eased in October but remained at 5.8%, meaning households still expect prices to rise faster than many paychecks. When people expect higher prices ahead, they tend to delay large purchases and trim discretionary spending such as dining out and travel.
What The Split Means For Holiday Budgets
The October numbers point to a holiday season shaped by careful spending rather than a buying surge. Shoppers may feel slightly better, but plans to cut back on durable goods suggest fewer big-ticket gifts and more attention to price.
For households, a few practical steps follow from the data:
- Set a holiday budget early, since prices for many goods remain elevated compared with last year.
- Track gas prices before longer holiday drives, as costs remain well above 2025 levels.
- Watch borrowing costs before using credit for large purchases. The Federal Reserve, which raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, announces its next rate decision on October 28.
The next Consumer Confidence report will show whether lower gas prices can sustain the improvement, or whether inflation worries pull sentiment back down as the holidays approach.
FAQs
What Is The Consumer Confidence Index?
The Consumer Confidence Index is a monthly survey by The Conference Board that measures how Americans feel about current economic conditions and their expectations for the next six months. Economists watch it because consumer spending drives most of the U.S. economy.
What Was Consumer Confidence In October 2026?
The index rose to 91.7 in October 2026, up 7.5 points from a revised 84.2 in September. It was the first increase in four months.
Why Did Consumer Confidence Rise In October?
The Conference Board tied the increase largely to easing gas prices. The national average for regular gas fell to $4.27 a gallon, down from $4.48 a month earlier.
What Does An Expectations Index Below 80 Mean?
The Conference Board associates an Expectations Index below 80 with an elevated risk of recession within the next year. October’s reading was 72.6.
