The National Retail Federation expects U.S. retail sales in November and December 2026 to grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, faster than last year’s 3.1% gain to $972 billion. The forecast sets up a Black Friday on November 27 shaped by two forces at once: higher prices and steady consumer demand.
Key Takeaways
- NRF projects holiday retail sales of $1.013 trillion for November and December, up 4.2% from 2025’s $972 billion.
- Retailers are expected to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, close to last year’s estimated 356,000.
- The forecast is not adjusted for inflation, and NRF said on its forecast call that it expects nearly half of the growth to come from real spending.
- NRF’s count excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants, and covers November 1 through December 31.
- A record 203 million people shopped over the 2025 Thanksgiving weekend, according to NRF.
NRF’s $1.013 Trillion Forecast Points To Faster Holiday Growth Than 2025
The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday forecast on October 15, projecting that November and December sales will rise 4.2% over 2025. That pace is more than a full percentage point above last season, when holiday sales rose 3.1% to $972 billion.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said the forecast reflects confidence that consumers “will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets.” NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews described consumers as “the bright spot in the economy,” while noting that inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect income groups differently.
Those two statements frame the season. Spending is expected to grow, but the people doing the spending are not all in the same position.
Higher Prices And Real Demand Both Drive The Number
The National Retail Federation’s forecast is measured in nominal dollars, meaning it is not adjusted for inflation. Part of the projected $41 billion increase over last year comes from shoppers paying more for the same goods rather than buying more of them.
NRF addressed that split on its forecast call, saying it expects nearly half of the growth to come from real consumer spending, the volume of goods people actually buy. The rest reflects higher prices. For retailers, that difference matters: a sales gain driven mostly by prices can look strong on paper while unit volumes and margins stay flat.
Other recent signals point the same way. Data on consumer confidence rebounding to 91.7 in October even as Americans plan to spend less suggests households feel better about the economy but remain careful with their own budgets. A trillion-dollar season and cautious shoppers can both be true when prices are doing part of the work.
Retailers Take A Measured Approach To Seasonal Hiring
The National Retail Federation expects retailers to add 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers this year, in line with last year’s estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs. The range suggests companies are preparing for demand without expanding their holiday payrolls much.
NRF tied that caution to the same pressures facing shoppers: higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt. For job seekers, the result is a seasonal market that looks a lot like last year’s rather than a hiring surge to match the headline sales number.
What NRF Counts And What It Leaves Out
The National Retail Federation defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31. Its calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail spending.
The model draws on consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales data. Because gas stations are excluded, higher fuel prices don’t inflate the total directly. They work indirectly by leaving households less to spend on gifts and other retail purchases.
Black Friday Opens The Thanksgiving To Cyber Monday Stretch
Thanksgiving falls on November 26, 2026, which puts Black Friday on November 27 and Cyber Monday on November 30. That five-day window will give an early read on whether NRF’s forecast is on track.
Last year set the bar high. NRF counted a record 203 million shoppers over the 2025 Thanksgiving weekend, in stores and online. Matching that turnout in 2026 would suggest the demand side of the forecast is holding up, while spending per shopper will show how much of the growth comes from higher prices.
FAQs
How much will Americans spend this holiday season?
The National Retail Federation forecasts $1.013 trillion in November and December 2026 retail sales. That is a 4.2% increase over 2025’s $972 billion.
When is Black Friday 2026?
Black Friday is Friday, November 27, 2026, the day after Thanksgiving on November 26. Cyber Monday follows on November 30.
How many seasonal workers will retailers hire in 2026?
NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers. That is in line with last year’s estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs.
Does the NRF holiday forecast account for inflation?
No. The forecast is in nominal dollars, so higher prices are part of the projected growth. NRF said it expects nearly half of the increase to come from real spending.
