The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has reached late September without producing a single hurricane, the first time that has happened since 1914. Six named storms have formed, but none reached hurricane strength. Forecasters point to a strengthening El Niño that NOAA expects to rival or surpass the strongest on record this winter.
Key Takeaways
- No Atlantic hurricane has formed as of September 22, 2026, a stretch last seen in 1914, which ended with no hurricanes at all.
- On September 11, 2026 passed the latest date for a season’s first Atlantic hurricane in the satellite era, which NOAA dates to 1966.
- The Atlantic has produced six named storms, all at tropical storm strength, including Tropical Storm Edouard, which made landfall near the Texas–Louisiana border.
- If the Atlantic stays hurricane-free until October 8, 2026 will pass the 1905 record for the latest first hurricane in NOAA’s records.
- The eastern Pacific has an accumulated cyclone energy of about 179.9 as of September 20, compared with a 1991–2020 average of 100.5 for a full season.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of a very strong El Niño from October through December 2026 at 98%.
A Quiet Atlantic at the Height of Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, and activity usually peaks around September 10. Based on 1991–2020 climate data from the National Hurricane Center, the first hurricane of a typical season forms in early to mid-August. By late September, most seasons have already produced several.
The 2026 season has broken that pattern. Before this year, the latest first hurricane of the satellite era was September 11, a date shared by Humberto in 2013 and Gustav in 2002. The Atlantic moved past that mark earlier this month, and by September 21 the basin had gone longer without a hurricane than in any season in 112 years.
The season has not been storm-free. Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard all formed as tropical storms, and a sixth named storm followed. Edouard’s landfall near the Texas–Louisiana border shows that tropical storms can still deliver heavy rain and flooding to the Gulf Coast, even in a quiet year.
El Niño Is Reshaping Both Oceans
The quiet Atlantic did not catch forecasters off guard. NOAA’s preseason outlook called for a below-normal season of 7 to 13 named storms, including 2 to 6 hurricanes, because of the developing El Niño. El Niño tends to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, which tears apart developing storms before they can strengthen.
The Pacific has seen the opposite effect. The eastern Pacific season has been hyperactive, with two Category 5 hurricanes, Genevieve and Lowell, and Lowell became the first Pacific hurricane to reach Category 5 twice since Ioke in 2006. In August, Hurricane Lala became the first hurricane to directly strike Hawaii’s Big Island since 1871. On September 24, Hurricane Polo regained Category 5 strength off Mexico’s Pacific coast with sustained winds of 162 mph.
NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory reported that its September forecast shows a slightly weaker peak than August’s, but still high confidence in a historically strong El Niño. All 30 of its model runs show the event rivaling or surpassing the strongest on record. The Climate Prediction Center reported the Niño 3.4 index at plus 2.0 degrees Celsius on September 17, and its median forecast peaks near plus 2.67 degrees Celsius from October through December.
What a Record El Niño Means for the U.S. Winter
The Atlantic’s quiet stretch is only part of El Niño’s reach. According to NOAA, El Niño winters typically push the Pacific jet stream south, steering storms across the southern United States. The same shift tends to leave the Northern Rockies and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys drier, and it often brings a warmer-than-usual winter to the northern U.S.
For households and businesses, that pattern has practical consequences. A milder northern winter could ease heating demand across the upper Midwest and Northeast, while a wetter southern tier raises flood risk from California to the Gulf Coast and the Southeast. NOAA’s early outlooks show a 50% to 60% chance of above-normal precipitation for coastal California this winter, and forecasters say the wet zone could extend into central Oregon. Ski regions face split odds, with the Southwest and California favored and the Northern Rockies leaning dry.
The Season Is Not Over Yet
The quiet stretch does not mean the Atlantic is done for 2026. Late September and October have historically produced dangerous storms, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and along the U.S. Southeast coast. Some forecasters expect conditions to become more favorable for development in October.
If no hurricane forms by November 30, 2026 would join 1907 and 1914 as the only Atlantic seasons since records began in 1851 without a single hurricane. For coastal residents, emergency managers and insurers, the lesson is not to confuse a quiet season with a safe one. A single late-season storm can still cause major damage, as Hurricane Ian did when it reached Category 5 on September 28, 2022.
FAQs
Has There Been a Hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
No. As of September 22, 2026, no Atlantic hurricane had formed. Six named storms developed, but all stayed at tropical storm strength.
Why Are There No Atlantic Hurricanes This Year?
A very strong El Niño in the Pacific is increasing wind shear over the Atlantic, which disrupts developing storms. NOAA forecast a below-normal Atlantic season for this reason.
When Does the Atlantic Hurricane Season End?
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends November 30. Late September and October can still produce dangerous storms, especially in the Gulf and along the Southeast coast.
How Will El Niño Affect the U.S. Winter in 2026–27?
El Niño typically brings wetter conditions across the southern U.S. and a warmer, drier winter in parts of the northern states, including the Northern Rockies and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
